Republicans did make gains in a few places where they have already been strong. Virginia was transformed into a Republican stronghold during the so-called “Reagan Revolution,” though Democrats did surprisingly well there one year ago riding on Obama’s coattails. Republicans took back some party-level momentum there with the election of Bob McDonnell as governor, which is not surprising. They also, as expected, won the governor’s race in New Jersey.

The real test for an anti-Democratic party or anti-Obama backlash was in Upstate New York in a previously Republican congressional district. That race had become quite complicated with the right wing splitting on ideology, and numerous major Republican political leaders spending considerable time there campaigning for their candidate. Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Fred Thompson, and others made this a test case for a Republican comeback. The Democratic challenger won, putting a relatively liberal Democrat in this House seat that as been occupied by conservatives since the late nineteenth century. The backlash test failed: The Obama-led Democratic momentum is still strong.